中国疫情已出现拐点_基于数学建模预判疫情 李迅雷:乐观预计2月11日左右将出现拐点

根据李迅雷和唐军基于数学模型的预测,新诊断的冠状病毒的数量将在2月17日(中性假设下)或2月11日(乐观假设下)发生逆转

中国疫情已出现拐点

经济观察网记者黄逸梵截至2月3日24时,中国已确诊2万多名新型冠状病毒患者。短短一个月内的确诊病例数远远超过了2003年的确诊病例总数。目前,每天新增确诊病例数仍在上升,疫情传播速度超过大多数人的预期。

2年3月3日,中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷和中泰证券金融工程首席分析师唐军在微信公众号李迅雷财经投资发布了一个基于数学模型的新病毒传播预测

据其文章估计,未来新冠状病毒病例总数将达到88,500例(中性假设下)或58,000例(乐观假设下),新确诊病例将于2月17日(中性假设下)或2月11日(乐观假设下)逆转

李迅雷告诉经济观察网,该预测已经考虑到假期后返乡工人的增加。但是他也说,“因为预测是不科学的,所以一定有很大的偏差。”影响因素太多,如果变量不准确,就会有偏差。例如,R0(新冠状病毒感染的基本数量),它一直在变化“

支持武汉流行病学量表预测未来拐点

受其他省市新发冠状病毒患者死亡率明显低于武汉这一事实的启发,推测武汉的确诊数据可能存在失真。李迅雷和唐军认为,人口迁出武汉的发生率推回了武汉的感染人数

根据百度地图发布的大迁移数据,1月14日至1月23日,以武汉为迁移地点,以移民人数最多的8个省市为分析样本,统计1月21日以来的确诊病例数据

统计,1月25日以后,8个省市确诊数据的一致性明显提高据估计,浓度的增加可能是由于第一个新的冠状病毒检测试剂盒于1月24日通过测试,然后许多企业开始生产。试剂盒问题解决后,诊断和检测效率大大提高。

根据李迅雷和唐军,以1月28日武汉市8个省市每万移民32人的中位发病率为参考(平均值也非常接近),1月14日至21日期间,约有300多万移民最终滞留在900万武汉人,潜伏期内平均感染人数约为1100万*32/7天= 5257人

通过武汉市前8个省市1月14日至次年1月22日确诊病例数与武汉市移民数之间的关系,推断出武汉市潜在感染的比例和数量,并得出模型求解的重要约束条件通过数值求解得到参数值,并代入模型,对新的树冠疫情进行评估和预测。

文章称,假设隔离和预防措施能够达到或接近非典后期的效果,预计未来患者总数将达到约88,500人(在中性假设下)或58,000人(在乐观假设下),新确认的人数将在2月17日(在中性假设下)或2月11日(在乐观假设下)左右

股市会调整,但幅度不大。

唐军表示,新增冠状病毒感染的基本数量明显大于非典,但单次接触感染的概率可能略低,公众不必恐慌。

何说,“潜伏期长和病情较轻增加了疫情防控的难度。采取更早、更彻底和更严格的隔离接触者的病例可能是最有效的预防和控制措施。”“

另外,从目前的观点来看,新的冠状病毒没有非典、禽流感、H1N1等病毒严重和致命「由於潜伏期长及有大量轻微疾病的病人,我们需要更严格的隔离及预防措施,以控制疫症的蔓延,这将会对短期经济造成重大影响“

和从以前资本市场面对流行病的表现来看,股票市场在短期内可能在情绪的影响下反应过度,然后它会得到修复。

文章提到,H1N1流感疫情于2009年在美国爆发,最终完全失控。在此期间,美国股市在2009年5月和6月仅略有回调,幅度为-6%美国股市对爆发影响的反应较小在2003年非典疫情期间,港股和a股做出了明显的反应,跌幅约为-14%,但随后均出现明显反弹,反弹时间早于疫情的拐点。

唐军和李迅雷建议短期负收益(如收入锐减、资金回笼困难等。)可能会造成公司的短期周转困难,从而造成更大的风险。因此,建议有关政府部门出台一些措施,支持和帮助在疫情期间遇到短期困难的企业。


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